What polling tells us about Americans’ support for Trump’s mass deportations

Jan 29, 2025 | Uncategorized

Immigration was one of the top issues that propelled President Donald Trump to the White House in last year’s election. Polls showed that voters trusted Republicans more than Democrats to handle the issue, which they consistently ranked as one of their top concerns. And of the many executive actions that Trump took during his first week in office, the ones cracking down on immigration were the most popular.

This week, Trump started making good on one of his highest-profile and most controversial immigration promises: deporting millions of immigrants from the U.S. Since Sunday, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement has arrested thousands of people in Chicago, New York City and elsewhere. At first blush, Americans seem to approve of deporting undocumented immigrants, too. But if you dig deeper into the polling, it turns out that support for mass deportations varies a lot depending on how the question is asked, making it tricky to assess how Americans really feel about what Trump is doing — and how they will react to it.

This month, three polls have asked Americans what they think about mass deportations using several different question wordings. While all three found that Americans supported deporting undocumented immigrants in general, support typically plummeted when the question included details of how they would be detained or who would be impacted. The only specific policy that seems to be popular is deporting immigrants who have been convicted of a crime.

For example, a Jan. 9-13 poll from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that American adults favor “deporting all immigrants living in the United States illegally” by 6 percentage points (43 percent to 37 percent). But when the poll asked about “deporting all immigrants living in the United States illegally, even if that means they will be separated from their children who are citizens,” respondents opposed it by 27 points (28 percent to 55 percent). Americans also told the AP/NORC that they opposed arresting undocumented immigrants while they are in the hospital by 25 points, while they are at church by 37 points and while they are at school by 46 points.

But one policy had near-unanimous support (+76 points, on net) in the AP/NORC poll: deporting undocumented immigrants who have been convicted of a violent crime. Americans even favored deporting legal immigrants who have been convicted of a violent crime by 52 points. But when the pollster asked about deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally who have not been convicted of a violent crime, Americans were marginally opposed (by 7 points).

A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO poll conducted Jan. 9-14 for The Wall Street Journal found a very similar pattern. When that survey simply asked if the U.S. should “detain and deport millions of undocumented immigrants,” 52 percent of registered voters were strongly or somewhat in favor, while 45 percent were strongly or somewhat opposed. But it found much higher support (+52 points, on net) for detaining and deporting “only undocumented immigrants who have been convicted of a crime.” Meanwhile, registered voters opposed detaining and deporting immigrants “even if they have lived in the U.S. for 10 or more years, pay taxes on earnings, and have no criminal record” by 44 points.

This poll likewise found that Americans get cold feet about deportations when families are at risk of being separated. When asked if the U.S. should “detain and deport undocumented immigrants even if they have children that were born here and are American citizens,” registered voters said no by 19 points. Additionally, registered voters opposed detaining and deporting undocumented immigrants “even if it means businesses will face worker shortages,” albeit by only 5 points — suggesting fewer Americans are moved by this argument.

Finally, an Ipsos/Axios survey from Jan. 10-12 found even stronger support than the other two polls for deporting undocumented immigrants in general, but every other deportation policy they asked about was underwater. For instance, according to this poll, Americans supported “deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally” by 34 points — but they opposed “quickly deporting detained immigrants, even if it involves separating families or sending people to countries other than their country of origin” by 28 points. The survey also found that Americans opposed “deporting immigrants that came to the U.S. illegally as children” by 29 points.

The poll also found Americans staunchly against using the military to conduct immigration raids. They opposed “using active duty military to find and detain undocumented immigrants in U.S. cities and towns” by 21 points and “using money allocated to the U.S. military to pay for deportation” by 41 points. (So far, this hasn’t happened, as the raids have been conducted by ICE, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security.)

If Trump wants to stay on the right side of public opinion while keeping his campaign promise to deport immigrants, it’s clear what he has to do: deport only those who are convicted of crimes. But the administration could struggle to stick to that narrow mandate given the quotas they have reportedly issued to ICE (1,200-1,500 arrests per day). Already, there are reports that ICE has arrested undocumented immigrants with no criminal record and that the raids are separating families. If stories like these become the public image of Trump’s deportation efforts, he could soon find that immigration is no longer a political strength for him.

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