CNBC Daily Open: Investors seem conditioned to expect Trump reversals

The heaviest of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs — a full 145% on imports of Chinese goods — was, once again, delayed for another 90 days.

The move should be a huge relief not just to investors, but perhaps most of the population on Earth. The U.S. and China are the two largest economies in the world, according to World Bank data, and a trade war in which imports of each other’s goods double in price would probably stymie, if not cripple, the global economy.

But markets were mostly unmoved. Well, they did move — lower. The three big U.S. stock indexes retreated Monday as this outcome was more or less expected, since both sides had earlier telegraphed an extension of the tariff pause.

Investors could have also been conditioned to expect flip-flopping from Trump, such that threats, promises, criticisms and praises don’t carry as much heft as they should anymore. On Monday, Trump said Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s “success and rise is an amazing story,” after describing Tan as “highly CONFLICTED” the week before.

There’s a Freudian idea in which an individual projects their thoughts and feelings to another person. Researchers are, well, conflicted, on the veracity of the phenomenon, but empirical observation suggests it’s not uncommon.

Trump extends pause on China tariffs. U.S. tariffs on China were delayed for 90 days, Trump said on Truth Social. It was the expected outcome from the latest round of talks between the two countries.

E.J. Antoni to be nominated as Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. Trump said Monday that Antoni, the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, is his choice to replace Erika McEntarfer, whom he fired after accusing her of data manipulation.

Intel CEO is a “success,” Trump says. The U.S. president’s praise of Lip-Bu Tan is a reversal in tone from his previous week’s message, in which Trump said Tan “must resign, immediately.”

U.S. stocks end Monday lower. Major stock indexes fell as traders awaited the release of the consumer price index later today — and appeared unimpressed by Trump’s extension of tariff truce with China. European markets dipped as well.

[PRO] Citibank raises its S&P 500 forecast. The Wall Street bank attributed its higher year-end target for the index to strong quarterly earnings, expected benefits from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and a better-than-expected impact from tariffs.