Airline CEOs warn domestic travel demand is slowing

Airlines are cutting their first-quarter profit and sales estimates, warning that a weaker economic backdrop is weighing on travel demand.

Ahead of a JPMorgan industry conference, American Airlines on Tuesday said it expects to lose between 60 cents a share and 80 cents a share in the first three months of the year, a wider loss than the 20 cents to 40 cents a share it previously forecast. It said revenue would likely be flat on the year compared with a January estimate of a rise of as much as 5%.

American said in a securities filing that “the revenue environment has been weaker than initially expected due to the impact of Flight 5342 and softness in the domestic leisure segment, primarily in March,” referring to the deadly collision of one of its regional jets and an Army helicopter in Washington, D.C., in January.

The forecast followed Delta Air Lines slashing its first-quarter estimates after the market closed Monday. Delta said its outlook was “impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand.”

In addition to leisure travel, carriers have said also noted a sharp decline in government travel since the start of the latest Trump administration and its policies like tariffs, government layoffs and other cost cuts.

“I think people are cautious and they’re pulling back a little bit on travel, not in an organized manner but just kind of waiting to see what’s going to transpire, whether it’s trade and tariff challenges or macroeconomic policy changes or just a little bit of the unsettledness of the market that we all see,” CEO Ed Bastian said at the JPMorgan conference.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby echoed that sentiment at the same conference.

“We have also seen weakness in the demand market,” Kirby said. Government travel is about 2% of United’s business, but other workers’ travel is also affected, like consultants and contractors, which account for another 2% to 3%.

“We’ve seen some bleed over to that into the domestic leisure market,” Kirby said.

One cost-saving measure: Kirby said United is retiring 21 aircraft early, airplanes that it would otherwise have to spend $100 million on to overhaul engines this year.

Both executives were more upbeat on longer-term trends and bright spots like long-haul international and premium travel demand.

Delta shares ended the day more than 7% lower. United shed 2% and American shares fell more than 8%.

Southwest Airlines also cut its unit revenue guidance, to up no more than 4%, down from a forecast of as much as 7% for the first quarter over last year. The carrier also announced on Tuesday an end to its “two bags fly free” policy to charge customers for checked luggage for the first time, starting in May. Its shares rose more than 8%.

JetBlue Airways shares ended 4% higher.