A survey from Stack Data Strategy, which used the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) technique of polling in addition to other voting intention factors to give seat-by-seat predictions, found that the Conservatives would be nearly wiped out entirely in Britain, save for 14 seats on just 17 per cent of the vote in the next general election.
According to the findings, the Tories would only retain four seats in London, one in the Midlands, three in the North and Scotland, and just six in their traditional voting heartland of the Home Counties, The Telegraph reported.
Conversely, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is on course to win 348 seats on 30 per cent of the vote, likely giving the insurgent populist party a majority of 46 seats in the House of Commons. This would represent one of the most significant increases for any party in British history, with Reform presently only controlling five seats in the Commons.
Meanwhile, the governing Labour Party is projected to fall to 161 seats, down from its current 405, and the Liberal Democrats would win 63 seats.
The survey also predicted that only Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp would retain their seats on the Conservative frontbench.
In comments to the Daily Mail, a Conservative Party insider said: “This is absolutely an existential threat. It goes to show the level of work that needs doing, and I don’t think the leadership has always grasped to survive. This is a clear wake-up call.”
Another Tory HQ insider warned that the polling showed that the party is at risk of “being consigned to the history books.”
It comes amid growing speculation over whether the longstanding party of government should seek to replace Badenoch, who has so far failed to connect with voters, many of whom have fled to Reform since the last election over the failures of previous Tory governments to police Britain’s borders.
Nevertheless, Badenoch allies stressed that another leadership change would only further erode public trust in the party.
“The Conservative Party hasn’t commissioned any such polling from Stack. But the quickest way to show that we haven’t listened and we haven’t learnt from our biggest-ever defeat last year is to dissolve into more fights about leadership,” an unnamed ally is quoted as saying.
“From her forcing out Mandelson and Rayner, to her conference speech resetting the party on stronger economy and stronger borders, Kemi has shown she has the backbone, team and plan to take the Conservative Party back to Downing Street… And anyone who is trying to say otherwise just wants our party to fail.”
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