The study, published in the Financial Review, is described by the UTEP research team as “one of the clearest empirical looks at how financial pressures can influence real-time rule enforcement.”
The study, titled “Under (Financial) Pressure,” looked at over 13,000 defensive penalties from between 2015 and 2023.
Given the study’s focus on finances and marketability, the analysis concentrated on the playoffs because it is the most lucrative time of year for the NFL and advertising sales.
The study found that penalties against opposing defenses of the Chiefs’ offense were significantly more “likely to result in first downs, cover more yardage, and fall into subjective categories such as roughing the passer or pass interference.”
Of note, the study found that previous dynasties, such as New England’s run of dominance under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, did not enjoy the same level of favorable officiating.
“Our findings suggest that when the league’s financial health is at stake, rule enforcement may subtly shift to protect market appeal,” said Spencer Barnes, Ph.D., assistant professor of finance in UTEP’s Woody L. Hunt College of Business and the lead author of the study. “The fact that postseason penalties consistently favored one franchise, while similar dynasties showed no such pattern, points to the powerful role of financial incentives in shaping supposedly neutral decisions.”
As KTSM reports, “This, Spencer said, may be the result of financial pressures on the league stemming from the sharp decline in TV viewership and ratings during 2015–2017 seasons, just before Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. Those seasons were marked by controversy over racial issues, most notably San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the national anthem to protest police brutality and racism.
“The implications extend beyond football, the research team says. The study draws parallels to financial markets, corporate governance, and regulatory agencies, where dominant players may enjoy advantages not because of explicit corruption, but because institutions under pressure adapt to preserve stability and revenue.”
John Hadjimarcou, Ph.D., dean of UTEP’s Woody L. Hunt College of Business, believes the study is vital in that it lifts the veil on how institutions balance (or do not balance) financial concerns with the expectation of impartiality.
“This research not only deepens our understanding of sports governance, but also illustrates a larger societal concern: When financial pressure weighs heavily, impartiality can erode,” said Hadjimarcou. “Spencer’s work demonstrates the power of academic inquiry to reveal hidden dynamics that affect fairness, competition, and trust in institutions.”
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