Russia’s revenues from oil and gas are expected to plunge in September by 23% from a year earlier, as international crude prices have declined and the Russian currency has strengthened, calculations by Reuters showed on Thursday.
The decline is not good news for Russia, which is currently planning its 2026 budget and continues to spend heavily on the war in Ukraine.
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Russia’s oil and gas sales are expected to bring the Kremlin $7.11 billion (592 billion rubles) this month, per the Reuters estimates based on production, refining, and supply data. Due to lower government subsidies to refiners paid in September, the revenues would be 17% higher than in August.
Yet, the revenues for January to September are estimated by Reuters to drop by 20.5% year-on-year, to $79.6 billion (6.62 trillion rubles).
The stronger ruble and the drop in international oil prices and as a result, Russia’s discounted prices, have dragged the Kremlin’s revenues to two-year lows.
Russia’s crude and fuel export revenue slumped by $920 million in August compared to July, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates in its latest monthly report.
The discounts of Russian crude grades widened last month amid the U.S. pressure on India for buying oil from Russia, while Russian refinery production slumped as Ukraine hit several processing facilities with drones.
As a result, Russia’s crude and petroleum product export revenues plunged by $920 million from July to $13.51 billion in August, the IEA’s estimates showed.
Meanwhile, Russia’s petroleum product shipments rose by 8.9% in August compared to July as some refineries returned from maintenance, according to estimates by Reuters based on data from industry sources.
Oil product exports from the Baltic Sea ports and from the Black Sea and Azov Sea ports increased in August from July, while shipments from the Arctic ports slumped last month.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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