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President Donald Trump needs to regain his momentum and keep control of the House in 2026. Otherwise, the Trump agenda is finished. GOP priorities such as ending birthright citizenship, enacting voter ID laws and changing the census to exclude illegal immigrants will vanish along with Republicans’ House majority.
The president has about eight months to reverse his slipping poll numbers and win back the voters who elected him last year. If he fails, he could spend the next two years fighting another Democratic impeachment effort.
Remember, it was only a few weeks ago that political pundits were writing obituaries for the Democratic Party. The party’s approval ratings were in the gutter, with favorability toward Democrats at its lowest point in 30 years. Democrats lacked leadership, and even a month before voters went to the polls in New Jersey and Virginia, candidates in those states had failed to find a winning message. The only thing they had was hatred for Donald Trump.
FOX NEWS POLL: VOTERS SAY WHITE HOUSE IS DOING MORE HARM THAN GOOD ON ECONOMY
All that changed almost overnight in November as voters flocked to the polls and backed Democrats, venting their anger over ongoing inflation, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history and —yes — President Trump.
In late October, Polymarket showed 57% of participants betting that Democrats would take over the House. Today, 72% expect Republicans to lose it.
Things can change quickly in politics.
SURVEY SAYS: ISSUE THAT HELPED TRUMP AND REPUBLICANS IN 2024 HURT THEM NOW
To succeed in the midterms, President Trump needs to spark a booming economy, lower the cost of living and present a coherent immigration policy.
Kevin Hassett, head of Trump’s National Economic Council, told Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo over the weekend that 2026 was shaping up to be a “blockbuster year.” He’s likely right. The flood of investments coming into the country thanks to Trump’s trade deals is just beginning to show up, while tax changes contained in the Big, Beautiful Bill have created even more incentives for companies to expand in the U.S.
Dozens of companies, including BioMADE, Genentech, L3Harris, Merck, AstraZeneca and Amkor Technology have broken ground on new manufacturing facilities in recent months. The number of people employed in nonresidential construction is rising. Though AI may slow some sectors, the expansion of companies and countries into the U.S. will boost hiring, reassure consumers and support steady spending. Also lifting consumer sentiment will be tax cuts coming next year.
Meanwhile, despite complaints about the impact of tariffs, there’s growing evidence that Trump’s higher import duties are not stifling trade or growth. The Wall Street Journal recently published an analysis of CEO mentions of tariffs in quarterly earnings calls, concluding, “Executives are starting to chill out about tariffs after a year of anxiety.”
IT’S NOT JUST THE ECONOMY — THIS IS HOW DEMOCRATS BEAT THE GOP ACROSS THE COUNTRY
Hassett predicted the Democrat-led government shutdown will cut fourth-quarter growth roughly in half — from the near 4% range of the past six months to about 1.5% to 2%. Maybe that’s why Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer insisted on keeping the government closed. Democrats know a strong economy doesn’t serve their political interests.
Focusing on affordability, the president is rolling back duties on specific items such as coffee and bananas, whose prices have surged. Overall inflation stands just below 3%. The major challenges for consumers — and for President Trump — remain health insurance and housing costs.
Obamacare enrollees face sharp premium increases due to the expiration of extra subsidies created under the American Rescue Act. Politico reports the president is considering a one- or two-year extension of those payments, limited to people earning up to 700% of the federal poverty line. If accurate, this seems a reasonable compromise that would give the GOP time to pursue other fixes to the flawed program.
DAVID MARCUS: WHY REPUBLICANS DESPERATELY NEED A TRUMP-CENTERED MIDTERM CONVENTION
Obamacare serves only about 7% of Americans. Since the individual mandate was repealed, the program covers a smaller and sicker population than expected, driving up costs. Some GOP-backed reforms—such as allowing insurers to compete across state lines — were never implemented.
It’s time to revive those ideas, including real price transparency so patients can comparison shop, and tort reform to curb unnecessary tests and procedures done mainly to avoid lawsuits.
The GOP failed to repeal Obamacare; now it must fix what’s broken.
Housing, too, is a hot-button issue, especially for younger voters. High mortgage rates have discouraged buyers and kept supply tight as homeowners with low rates refuse to sell. The Fed seems poised to lower interest rates next month, and once the president’s new Fed chair is confirmed, Trump will likely push for continued rate cuts. Lower mortgage rates would unlock frozen housing inventory and make homes more affordable.
Trump could also cut tariffs on lumber and homebuilding materials like kitchen cabinets to help reduce construction costs.
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On immigration, the president has accomplished much by tightening border security and encouraging millions to self-deport. But his aggressive deportations and ICE raids have alarmed many Americans. What was once a winning issue has become a liability, as his approval ratings on immigration have fallen from positive to negative. Hispanics, in particular, are unhappy with Trump’s deportation strategy.
President Trump should announce that ICE will focus solely on arresting and deporting criminal aliens. He should also revisit popular proposals from his first term, such as adopting a merit-based system like Canada’s, ending the diversity visa lottery and limiting chain migration. The president needs to remind voters that Republicans support legal immigration but oppose illegal immigration — just like most Americans.
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There is a clear path to victory next November.
Trump can, and must, find it.
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