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Over the weekend, representatives of the United States and Ukraine met in Geneva for talks that were “highly productive,” according to the White House.
On the table now is a draft 28-point plan that represents a solid business deal for Ukraine. This plan is no victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. He didn’t get Ukraine or eliminate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“Something good just may be happening,” President Donald Trump said Monday morning.
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The loss of territory in the Donbas region is painful and tragic. Unfortunately, Russia still has enough missiles to pummel Ukraine’s cities and energy infrastructure for years. It is a daily humanitarian disaster.
This war must end — for America’s sake, too. Since 2022, it has unleashed global geopolitical chaos, with China bankrolling Russia’s invasion and Putin reportedly trading nuclear weapons design secrets for North Korean ammunition and soldiers.
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The determined and diplomatic Special Envoy Witkoff has been working on this proposal since the spring, alongside Russian financier Kirill Dmitriev, who has the cold stare of an extra from “Yellowstone.” Disregard the diplomatic face-saving — like the palaver about Ukraine not targeting Moscow and St. Petersburg. Whatever. Here are five strong points in the Witkoff plan.
1. Prosperity for Ukraine
The best part of this plan is the potential dawn of prosperity for Ukraine, beginning with instant access to the European Union. Ukraine would share electricity from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant—Europe’s largest—under IAEA control. Riverine and Black Sea grain shipping routes would be secured.
It’s not in the plan, but with peace comes the prospect of major American tech investment. How about an AI data center in Lviv? Ukraine could thrive.
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2. A Big Military
A 600,000-member military should be sufficient. Great Britain’s totals 181,000, and Poland—Europe’s powerhouse—has 216,000 in uniform. Of course, Ukraine will need hundreds of U.S. M1 Abrams tanks to form a mobile, deterrent barrier capable of stopping Russia in the future.
It goes without saying that Ukraine should retain its massive air defenses. NATO, the United States, and American companies already provide significant cyber and space power to Ukraine.
Don’t forget, NATO was always numerically outmatched by the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War. The strategy then depended on precision and mobility to counter a Soviet ground attack—and it worked. Send more U.S. tanks to Poland, too, so there’s no flank opportunity through Belarus or the Baltics.
3. Airpower
European fighter jets based in Poland (as per Point 9) are close enough to swoop in if Russia reattacks. There’s no limit on the number of F-35s rotating through Poland. Airpower remains the single best defense against a renewed invasion and a bulwark against cruise missile attacks.
One day, Ukraine should have its own fleet of F-35s to assist with mobile ground defense and intercept cruise missiles—although the line at the F-35 factory is quite long right now.
4. Catnip for Putin
For Putin, there’s plenty to like. He gets to rejoin the G8 club despite Russia’s small economy. The plan includes sanctions relief and “re-integration” into the global market—which, by the way, is essential to weaken Moscow’s dependence on Beijing.
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5. Unfrozen Russian Assets
Euroclear Bank in Belgium and others hold an estimated $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. The Witkoff plan would tap some of that money for Ukraine—a move sure to make Europe squirm because of banking regulation implications and lost interest income.
Sadly, over the weekend, European negotiators watered down Witkoff’s plan. How dare they? What wars has the European Union resolved lately? The bureaucratic “edit” of the 28-point plan was laughable, especially the part delaying Ukraine’s EU membership.
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While Britain, France, Germany and others remain strong allies and bilateral partners, the EU’s bureaucratic mindset has long since failed Ukraine. Europe can’t resolve this war.
Personally, I’d like to see every Russian out of Ukraine — including Crimea. When President Joe Biden held back NATO airpower before the invasion and then watched Russia dig three belts of minefields across Kherson in late 2022, the tactical problem became far more complicated.
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Everyone has a price, as the saying goes in real estate. Finding Putin’s price—short of restoring imperial Russia—has proven nearly impossible, especially with China offering “no-limits friendship” and supplying illicit defense microelectronics.
Putin has a taste for war, and defense production helps keep him in power. After the war, as the reality of one million Russian casualties sinks in, Putin could find himself a vassal to Xi Jinping. Or, he can take this deal.
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