The Russian news agency TASS reported on the IEA statistics, indicating that the Russian government does not dispute them. According to TASS, the IEA found that “Russia’s exports of oil and petroleum products fell by 2% in October 2025 month-on-month to 7.35 mln barrels per day (mbd),” while “revenues from export supplies lost 2.81% to $13.13 bln.”
Oil revenue had already dropped between September and October, but only by about $420 million, according to the report.
“Compared to last October, Russia’s revenues from oil exports were $2 bln lower,” TASS added.
President Trump and the Department of the Treasury announced sanctions in late October targeting Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in response to strongman Vladimir Putin’s refusal to seriously engage in peace negotiations with Ukraine. Putin first invaded Ukraine in 2014, colonizing its Crimean peninsula, and escalated attacks into a full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. He “annexed” four more territories in September of that year.
“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said in a statement announcing the sanctions. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary to support President Trump’s effort to end yet another war.”
Putin and Trump met in person in Alaska in August, part of a greater plan by President Trump to bring Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky together to find a way to end hostilities. Putin and Trump shared a phone conversation in October that the latter claimed would lead to an in-person meeting in Budapest, Hungary, but Trump later announced that he would indefinitely postpone that meeting due to a lack of progress in peace negotiations. The Hungary meeting has not been rescheduled at press time, and hostilities between Russia and Ukraine remain active.
TASS, citing the IEA, noted that its report suggested that the Lukoil and Rosneft sanctions could have a significant impact not just on Russia, but on “the stability of global energy markets.” As of now, however, the sanctions appear to be most impacting the stability of Lukoil, which has a much larger international presence than Rosneft and announced plans to sell many of its major global assets. On October 27, the company announced that, in response to the sanctions, it would seek to sell the assets affected. The Treasury allowed American companies to do business with Lukoil through November 21 for “wind-down” activities such as selling assets.
“The sale of the assets is conducted under an OFAC [Office of Financial Assets Control] wind down license. If necessary the Company plans to apply for extension of the license to ensure uninterrupted operations of its international assets,” Lukoil explained.
In Iraq, Lukoil declared force majeure this week, responding to the fact that the Iraqi government halted all its payments to the company immediately to comply with the American sanctions. The force majeure declaration specifically referred to activities at the massive West Qurna-2 oilfield, which reportedly produces 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) and Lukoil owns a 75-percent share in.
Lukoil owns significant assets in Bulgaria and Romania, as well as throughout Africa. It is unclear how many of these assets it will give up, though oil industry observers have suggested that the sanctions will have devastating effects on the company.
“Lukoil is finished,” an anonymous former official with the oil giant told Politico shortly after the sanctions took hold, estimating that as many as 30 percent of its assets could go up to market.
Analysts expected Rosneft to sustain less devastating damage from the sanctions than Lukoil, as Rosneft is less dependent on overseas assets.
Prior to the publication of the IEA report this week, Bloomberg claimed in early November that the effect of the sanctions had already begun to become apparent, as Russia’s oil tankers were leaving the country loaded at a slower rate. According to the outlet, eight fewer oil tankers left Russia in the week ending November 2 than the week before. The report attributed this phenomenon to Chinese companies canceling orders.
Attempts to sell its assets appear to have slowed, as TASS reported on Thursday that Lukoil has officially filed for an extension to the “wind down” period allowed by U.S. law for Americans to do business with the company for the purposes of buying its assets or concluding already agreed-to business. That period is scheduled to conclude on November 21. TASS noted that Lukoil attempted to sell its foreign assets to Gunvor, an international oil trader, but the U.S. government blocked the sale on the grounds that it would not meaningfully change the Russian ownership of the assets.
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