In Virginia, Democrats took back the governorship by nearly 15 points. Fifteen!
In New Jersey, which the GOP hoped would become the next Pennsylvania, the Democrat won the gubernatorial race by 13 points.
Gavin Newsom came out of his redistricting plan with a 63 to 36 percent victory. He also came out of it with the political wind at his back for a 2028 presidential campaign.
Virginia Republicans got killed in their House of Delegates races. A 51 to 48, three-seat deficit will become a 20 or 30-seat deficit, depending on the final numbers. There is no good news there.
And then there’s ascendancy of a Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s Marxist mayor. He’s already a national figure and as skilled as skilled politicians get. And no one can blame his victory on Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa’s refusal to drop out and endorse Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo. Even with Sliwa’s votes, Cuomo would’ve come up short. When the count is over, Mamdani might have over 50 percent of the vote, which is a triumph considering it was a three man race.
So what went wrong? How did the Republican Party go from a major, nationwide triumph one year ago to losing absolutely everywhere a year later?
Normally, I would say that the silver lining is blue, as these are all blue states. Republicans are not expected to win in New York, Virginia, California, or New Jersey. But it’s the margin of those victories that have alarm bells ringing.
One issue is that without President Trump on the ballot, a whole lot of MAGA voters don’t bother to come out.
Another issue is that without Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. basically on the ballot, a lot of our voters don’t come out. Kennedy’s base of support is very different from Trump’s.
Without Trump and RFK Jr. on the ballot or out there on the stump, what you’re left with are the realities on the ground, which come down to a few things…
First, there’s the quality of the candidates.
Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earl-Sears has a great story, but she’s a lousy candidate. Her first mistake was alienating Trump supporters. Then she went all in on the culture wars, specifically biological men being allowed in women’s bathrooms. That’s great, but voters are much more concerned about the economy.
The quality of the candidates in New York was abysmal. Cuomo is tainted beyond words and single-handedly killed the family dynasty. Sliwa has all kinds of positive qualities, but he’s not mayoral.
Second, the energy against Trump on the left is no joke. It’s not abating. This allows Democrats to run a national campaign locally, which is much easier than running and scaling up a local campaign, especially when it comes to turnout. Local Republican organizations must come up with a plan to turn out those so-called “low-propensity voters” who put Trump over the top. This means…
Third, and I cannot stress this enough, local politicians must grasp reality, and that means fully embracing Trump and the MAGA movement. MAGA’s national populism is the future of the Republican Party. I know that’s still difficult for many Republicans to face and it is an especially scary prospect in a blue New Jersey and blueish Virginia, but that’s where our base of voters is. Donald Trump turns 80 next year. In three years, he will be out of office. Republicans need to become MAGA, and then some.
Fourth, it really is the economy, stupid; and, of late, Trump has been awfully distracted with world events — trade deals, peace deals, etc. There’s been a lot of world travel. There’s been a lot of success. Nevertheless, the Trump Administration needs to refocus on Making America Great Again, which is a lot less attractive to any president. After all, overseas, U.S. presidents hold all the power. Domestically, it’s all about in-fighting, compromise, haggling, and partial victories. The lure of foreign policy is obvious, but it can also be a trap.
Therefore, everything Trump does between now and the midterms should be economy, economy, economy, and that includes his social media game.
The midterm elections are a mere year away, and look at how quickly this first year went by. If Trump loses the House next year, the last two years of his presidential term will be gummed up by more bogus investigations and impeachments.
Okay, maybe there’s one silver lining from Tuesday’s drubbing, and that’s this: on Tuesday night, blue states acted like blue states, so it’s a no-real-harm-done learning lesson for next year’s Big Game.
John Nolte’s first and last novel, Borrowed Time, is winning five-star raves from everyday readers. You can read an excerpt here and an in-depth review here. Also available in hardcover and on Kindle and Audiobook.
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