According to data released by the Manhattan Institute, Stefanik leads Hochul 43 percent to 42 percent among registered voters statewide — a statistical tie that nonetheless gives the Republican a narrow advantage. The poll, conducted October 22–26 among 600 likely New York City voters and 300 registered voters statewide in New York, also found that Stefanik holds a six-point lead over Hochul’s lieutenant governor and potential primary challenger, Antonio Delgado, at 43 to 37 percent.
In the New York City mayoral race, Mamdani drew 43 percent support compared to 28 percent for former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and 19 percent for Republican Curtis Sliwa, with 8 percent of voters undecided. When undecided voters are excluded, Mamdani’s share rises to 46 percent, giving him a 15-point advantage over Cuomo and a 24-point lead over Sliwa.
“With a sizable and divided anti-Mamdani portion of the electorate, the socialist assemblyman appears to have enough support to secure the simple plurality needed for victory,” the Manhattan Institute noted, adding that his current standing “may fail to clear a majority, something NYC has not seen since John Lindsay’s election to the office in 1969.”
Despite Mamdani’s strength among younger and urban voters, the poll found that many New Yorkers disagree with his key policy positions. A majority—60 percent—said fare evasion should be enforced to prevent crime, while just 30 percent described it as “mostly harmless.” Sixty-four percent of respondents favored expanding gifted and talented programs in public schools, and 58 percent opposed making buses completely fare-free. Another 60 percent supported repealing New York’s 2019 bail reform law and returning to the pre-2019 system.
The results also highlight voter unease over economic policy. Outside New York City, half of respondents opposed raising the corporate tax rate to fund new social programs, compared to 41 percent who supported it.
Team Elise celebrated the findings in a statement Tuesday, emphasizing Stefanik’s unprecedented strength. “In a heavily Democrat leaning state, an independent poll that is heavily weighted towards registered Democrat voters shows Republican Elise Stefanik leading Democrat Governor Kathy Hochul in a head-to-head match up,” commented Team Elise spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin. “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.”
Breslin added that “Kathy Hochul and single party Democrat rule have failed New York, making it the most unaffordable state in the country with the highest taxes, energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills,” asserting that “New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule.”
New York Republican Party Chairman Ed Cox called the results a “bombshell poll showing Elise Stefanik beating Kathy Hochul, before Elise has even declared her candidacy.” He stated, “Under Kathy Hochul and one-party Democrat rule, New York has become the most taxed, most regulated, least free state in America. The message is clear: New Yorkers want change, and next year they’ll get it.”
The poll follows a series of developments after Hochul endorsed Mamdani in September. As Breitbart News previously reported, the governor was heckled by Mamdani supporters during her appearance at a Queens rally earlier this month, where the crowd repeatedly chanted “Tax the rich!” over her remarks. Mamdani, who has proposed city-run grocery stores and a $700 million plan for fare-free buses, has not endorsed Hochul in return.
Stefanik, who has emerged as a leading voice in Congress on antisemitism and higher education, recently announced her forthcoming book Poisoned Ivies: The Inside Account of the Academic and Moral Rot at America’s Elite Universities, set for publication in April 2026. Her leadership PAC, “Save New York,” continues to expand Republican efforts ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
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