Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to rapidly intensify over the weekend into a Category 4 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The slow-moving storm is forecast to bring “life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides to southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through the weekend.
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Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible, NHC forecasters said.
AccuWeather forecasters, who said Melissa could hit Category 5 strength, said the storm “could end up being one of the strongest of the season.”
“We will be very fortunate if Melissa does not cause a humanitarian disaster in the northern Caribbean next week,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, who works with the USA TODAY Network.
Friday, Oct. 24, Melissa was about 800 miles from West Palm Beach. Should Florida residents be concerned?
While Melissa may be a monster in the making, it poses “little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.,” Truchelut said.
Here’s what you should know.
Where is Tropical Storm Melissa right now? See projected path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Satellite photos, graphics of Tropical Storm Melissa
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
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How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa expected to get? See the timeline
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As of 5 a.m., Oct. 24: 45 mph
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12 hours: 50 mph
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24 hours, Oct. 25: 65 mph
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36 hours: 75 mph, Category 1 hurricane
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48 hours:, Oct. 26 100 mph, Category 2 hurricane
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60 hours: 115 mph, Category 3 hurricane
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72 hours, Oct. 27 130 mph, Category 4 hurricane
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96 hours, Oct. 28: 145 mph, still a Category 4 hurricane
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120 hours, Oct. 29: 140 mph
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Map shows location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Friday, Oct. 24
At 5 a.m., Friday, Oct. 24, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.0N 75.5W. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 45 mph, making it a tropical storm.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Saturday, Oct. 25
On Saturday, Oct. 25, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.6N 75.4W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 65 mph. To be classified as a hurricane, maximum sustained winds need to reach 74 mph.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Sunday, Oct. 26
On Sunday, Oct. 26, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.9N 76.5W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 100 mph, making Melissa a Category 2 hurricane.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Monday, Oct. 27
On Monday, Oct. 27, Melissa was predicted to be at 16.9N 78.0W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 130 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Tuesday, Oct. 28
On Tuesday, Oct. 28, Melissa was predicted to be at 17.6N 78.8W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 145 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.
Map shows predicted location, strength of Tropical Storm Melissa Wednesday, Oct. 29
On Wednesday, Oct. 29, Melissa was predicted to be at 19.8N 77.9W. Maximum sustained winds were predicted to reach 140 mph, making Melissa a Category 4 hurricane.
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
Most current models now show Melissa being picked up and being shoved to the northeast into the Atlantic.
“At this time, we expect Melissa to stay well east of Florida,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva via email Oct. 23.
➤ WeatherTiger: Melissa a monster in the making with Florida dodging the bullet
“We do not anticipate any direct impacts or landfall in the state. However, we’re watching closely because if the storm shifts a little farther west, or if the trough that’s expected to steer it away from the coast is slower or farther west, that could allow Melissa to get a bit closer.”
While Melissa may be a monster in the making, it poses “little to no risk to Florida or the continental U.S.,” Truchelut said.
“Odds of any outer bands of Melissa even minimally scraping southeast Florida on its way out (into the Atlantic) are around 5%.”
Forecasters encourage residents to monitor the tropics and to always be prepared.
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa projected path, winds timeline. Florida impacts
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