Editor’s note: Track the latest hurricane forecast updates with USA TODAY’s coverage for Saturday, Sept. 27.
Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified in the open Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 26, becoming a Category 4 hurricane after gaining more than 30 mph in wind speeds in just six hours. Even though it’s forecast to strengthen even further, it’s not the storm that poses the most danger to U.S. shores.
No, the storm that U.S. residents have to worry most about was dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine at 5 p.m. on Sept. 26. That storm, about 145 miles northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba and about 145 miles south of the Central Bahamas, is forecast to become Tropical Storm Imelda over the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.
The center’s forecast shows the potential system could grow into a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane early next week as it moves through the Bahamas and past Florida, then make a very close brush near or over the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas.
“An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week,” the hurricane center said in the update.
The other growing concern for millions across the Carolinas and into Virginia isn’t tropical at all. It’s the slight risk for excessive rainfall ahead of the storm in a phenomenon the National Weather Service calls a predecessor rain event. If that sounds familiar, it’s because a similar event took place in mountainous areas of North Carolina and Tennessee before Helene arrived a year ago.
A cold front sitting over the Appalachians is generating showers, and could continue to generate rain through the weekend, with the bulk of the rainfall slowly shifting eastward over the weekend, said Scott Kleebauer, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center.
By Sept. 28, Kleebauer said the showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Carolinas could begin pulling in early bits of tropical moisture out in front of the approaching tropical system, expected to be Imelda by then.
To be clear, the weather service isn’t forecasting Helene-like extreme rainfall, but is urging residents, especially in southeastern North Carolina and coastal South Carolina to expect heavy rain, potentially through the end of September.
Meanwhile, although Humberto is forecast to remain out to sea, it could still affect the path of soon-to-be Imelda through a meteorological process known as the Fujiwhara effect.
How all of the weather systems moving into the larger overall region interact with one another will determine the extent of impacts the storms could have on the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas and potentially Bermuda over the next few days. But the risks are growing for impacts along the coast between Florida and North Carolina, National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said on the evening of Sept. 25.
What’s the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine?
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show improved signs of organization on Sept. 26, and it’s expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda within 24 hours, according to the hurricane center. The current forecast predicts the storm will move into the central and northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.
Tropical storm watches and warnings went into effect on Friday afternoon for portions of the Bahamas, where the hurricane center forecasts 4 to 8 inches of rain.
Eastern Cuba, where the potential tropical cyclone was centered about 145 miles offshore on the night of Sep. 26,, is forecast to see 8 to 12 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 16 inches possible, the hurricane center said. Hispaniola, Jamaica and portions of central and southern Cuba are expected to receive up to an additional 4 inches of rain. “This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding, the hurricane center said. “Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica.”
By Monday, Sept. 29, the forecast grows more uncertain, according to the hurricane center. It depends in large part on Imelda’s forward speed, which could either put it into sooner proximity with the cold front moving over the Southeast, or slow it down and increase the chances of a stronger interaction with Hurricane Humberto as the two systems near each other early next week, said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science at the University of Miami.
Will it hit the US? Could it be another Helene?
“A majority of the (model) solutions, but not an overwhelming majority, bring the system toward the Carolinas by around Tuesday,” said Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza on his Substack “the Eyewall” on Sept. 26. “However a non-trivial number of models peel the system back to the east, into the open Atlantic, due in part to some complex interactions with Hurricane Humberto.”
“Anyone having confidence in what, precisely, will happen at this point is probably not being honest with themselves (or you),” he added.
Heavy rain might end up being the main calling card of Imelda. “There is real potential here for a rainmaker in the Carolinas, and particularly North Carolina,” Lanza said. “Readers there will certainly and understandably be concerned that this could become another Hurricane Helene-like event. For now, we think that is unlikely, as the strongest rains appear to be east of areas most impacted by Helene, and the overall signal for prolonged, heavy rainfall is lower this time.”
For now, he said, NOAA is predicting 6 to 10 inches of rainfall for areas hardest hit, which is no picnic, but also far from reaching Helene-levels.
Hurricane Humberto is the 2025 season’s third major hurricane
At 11 p.m. on Sept. 26, Humberto was centered about 390 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west at 7 mph. Its sustained winds had grown from 115 mph to 145 mph in just six hours. Those winds are scheduled to peak at 160 mph on the night of Step 27.
For now, Humberto is forecast to follow a pattern similar to Erin, moving between the U.S. and Bermuda, but the strengthening Humberto is increasing the risks of long period swells that could make seas and surf hazardous along the U.S. coast, the hurricane center said. Humberto’s exact track is uncertain and remains tied to the future of the potential Imelda and other weather systems in the region.
Humberto is forecast to ultimately reach wind speeds of 150 mph, about 1,100 miles east-southeast of Miami by Sept. 28, the hurricane center said. If it does so, Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach said the Atlantic would be “3 for 3” in hurricanes becoming major this year, with Erin and Gabrielle both becoming major hurricanes.
The last time an Atlantic hurricane season’s first three hurricanes reached that level was in 1935, he said.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, with decades of experience covering hurricanes, weather and climate. Reach them at drice@usatoday.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Humberto becomes major hurricane amid worrying forecast
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