New Jersey is set to hold its gubernatorial elections this year, with hotly contested primaries set for next month — and many experts are saying the high-stakes race could be a harbinger for the mood of the country ahead of 2026’s critical midterm elections.
“This is going to be the first real test for the potential Democratic backlash against the Trump administration. We’ve seen a little bit from special elections that Democratic voters are motivated to turn out. Does that continue going forward in the fall in New Jersey?” Daniel Bowen, a political science professor at The College of New Jersey, told ABC News.
Brigid Callahan Harrison, the chair of the Political Science and Law Department at Montclair State University, told ABC News that the race might not only be a “bellwether” for how voters feel about President Donald Trump and the upcoming midterms, but that it could indicate both how partisan allegiances are shifting in New Jersey and the strength of Trump’s endorsement of Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli.
Harrison points to Kamala Harris’ small margin of victory in New Jersey, too. Harris won New Jersey by around 6 percentage points in 2024; then-Vice President Joe Biden won the state by about 16 percentage points in 2020.
At stake in the race are also issues in New Jersey such as immigration enforcement and sanctuary cities, and the cost of housing and general affordability — issues that have divided and animated Americans around the country and that are set to take center stage in the midterms as well.
Democrats contend with a crowded field
The Democratic primary features six figures hoping to succeed incumbent and term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and to keep the governorship blue.
Polling shows that U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who represents the state’s 11th Congressional District, is leading the pack. Sherrill’s experience as a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and network of political supporters from a previous run for Congress work in her favor, Harrison said.
Another Democratic candidate, Josh Gottheimer, has represented New Jersey’s 5th Congressional District since 2017. The former political operative is widely seen as a moderate. Similar to other candidates, Gottheimer is positioning himself as ready to take on Trump. He has also framed himself as being the best one to tackle affordability in the state.
Newark Mayor Ras Baraka was an educator in Newark Public Schools and a member of the city council before being elected mayor for the first time in 2014. He was arrested earlier this month while joining members of Congress at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center in Newark. Trespassing charges against Baraka have since been dismissed.
Steven Fulop was first elected mayor of Jersey City in 2013. The ex-Goldman Sachs investment banker and former Marine has overseen population growth, increased development and municipal reforms.
Steve Sweeney, a former ironworker who served as New Jersey’s state Senate president for more than a decade, spent two decades as a lawmaker in that chamber before losing to a Republican in 2021. He has touted his strong support from unions and experience as a legislator.
Sean Spiller, the president of the New Jersey Education Association — the state’s largest teacher’s union — has pointed to his experience as the former mayor of the city of Montclair as evidence that he is able to take on issues such as affordable housing and investing in childcare.
As the June 10 primary gets closer, experts say they’re all facing some of the same headwinds. After New Jersey eliminated its old primary ballot design, which used to allow most county parties to give preferential placement to their endorsed candidates, candidates now must focus more on their own get-out-the-vote operations, Harrison said.
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“Nobody’s run in a race like this,” she said.
Republicans play the Trump card — as he endorses a returning challenger
Republicans are hoping to flip New Jersey’s governorship red — and point to the closer-than-expected margin between Trump and Harris in 2024 as evidence that it’s in reach.
A recent New Jersey Republican Party fundraising email encouraged voters to “finish the job” and “flip New Jersey red, for good.”
Experts said the presidential results might not necessarily indicate how competitive the gubernatorial race will be. Bowen said that New Jersey’s off-cycle gubernatorial elections often show voters largely voting against the incumbent party in power in the White House, although he added that Republicans also see the race as intertwined with Democratic incumbent Murphy finishing up his time in office.
Still, most of the Republican candidates have been eager to align themselves with Trump.
Trump has endorsed the Republican front-runner Ciattarelli in the race that the president wrote is being “closely watched by the entire World.”
Ciattarelli has been involved in local politics for decades, serving various roles including councilman and state assemblyman. He has had his sights on governor since 2017, where he ran for the first time but lost the primary. Ciattarelli succeeded in clinching the Republican nomination in 2021, but ultimately lost to Murphy.
Ciattarelli, who says his top priority is making the state more affordable, has shifted his stance on Trump over the years. In 2015, he issued a statement calling Trump “out of step with American values” and “not fit” to be president. But he now supports the president, and endorsed Trump in the 2024 election.
Trump, recently wrote on his social media platform that Ciattarelli, “after getting to know and understand MAGA, has gone ALL IN, and is now 100% (PLUS!)”
After the endorsement, Ciattarelli told Fox News that he will support the president’s agenda. He has acknowledged his previous comments about Trump, too, but compared himself to Vice President JD Vance — who at one point also did not support the president but is now vice president under Trump.
Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told ABC News that Trump’s endorsement could help encourage undecided Republican voters to favor Ciattarelli. She said the center’s polling showed that with Republican voters who were split, about half said an endorsement from Trump would make them more likely to vote for that candidate.
Conservative talk show host Bill Spadea previously ran unsuccessful campaigns for the U.S. House and the state assembly, and has said he isn’t afraid to call out both parties. He has expressed a desire to end taxpayer subsidies for Planned Parenthood and replicate the Department of Government Efficiency in New Jersey, in addition to promising to combat illegal immigration and increase affordability. Still, he said he has disagreed with Trump on “multiple occasions.”
Jon Bramnick, a former state senator, appears to be less supportive of Trump. Last April, he made it clear that he would not vote for Trump in the 2024 presidential race, though he also said he probably wouldn’t vote for the Democratic candidate either.
Still, some of Bramnick’s positions reflect stances similar to Trump’s. In addition to branding himself as the “toughest candidate on immigration,” Bramnick also seeks to end sanctuary state policies in New Jersey, and introduced the “New Jersey Laken Riley Act,” which intends to align the state’s law with Trump’s legislation.
Mario Kranjac, the former mayor of the town of Englewood Cliffs, is running a pro-Trump campaign, branding himself as a “political outsider.” Justin Barbera, a contractor, is also running a pro-Trump campaign, telling the New Jersey Monitor he is guided by his military and Christian background.
Even with Ciatterelli standing out as the front-runner, Bowen said that nothing is certain until the primary wraps.
“It certainly looks like the race is Ciatterelli’s to lose at this point — although, of course, in a primary, anything can happen,” Bowen said.
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