The Emerson College/Pix 11/the Hill poll, published Thursday night, finds that Trump has a neutral rating in the Garden State, with 47 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving of his performance. Another six percent did not have an opinion or had neutral feelings about his performance.
Conversely, Murphy has a negative approval rating in the traditionally blue state. Of the respondents, 40 percent give him positive marks, while 45 percent disapprove. This equates to a net-5 rating. Fifteen percent of respondents did not give an opinion one way or another.
The dynamic should concern Democrats, who have won every presidential election in the Garden State since 1992. Trump steadily increased his vote total in New Jersey in each of the last three presidential elections. He garnered just over 1.6 million votes in New Jersey in 2016, over 1.8 million in 2020, and more than 1.9 million in 2024.
The gap between Trump and twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was much wider than it was between Trump and Harris in November. Clinton won by exactly 14 percentage points in 2016, which equated to a margin of 546,345 votes, per the New York Times’s data.
Even though Harris secured more votes than Clinton last year, the gap between Harris and Trump was a mere 5.9 points, marking a substantial shift from the 14 percent gap Clinton won by and the nearly 16 percent margin by which Biden carried the state in 2020.
Trump and Harris were separated by just 252,498 votes — virtually half of Clinton’s vote margin, per the Times.
Murphy’s negative approval rating and Trump’s positive indicate that the trend has continued, if not accelerated, since the election in November.
Another telling data point in the poll is the portion of respondents who want to see the next governor work with the Trump administration rather than resisting it. Of the poll participants, 53 percent want the next governor to “work with the Trump administration,” while 47 percent want Murphy’s successor to “stand up to the Trump administration.”
The poll sampled 1,000 registered voters from May 11-13, and the credibility interval is ± three percent.
Breitbart News
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