DETROIT — General Motors
Concerns of Wall Street analysts on the company’s quarterly earnings call focused on the automaker’s preparation for changes under the Trump administration, including the impacts of potential tariffs on vehicle production and policy changes on electric vehicle sales and pricing, signaling an overhang on the auto industry.
Shares fell roughly 9% in early trading despite meeting or exceeding many investor expectations.
Wall Street analysts have said there’s a lack of enthusiasm by investors for the U.S. automotive industry amid a slowdown in electric vehicles and autonomous vehicles, as well as regulatory volatility.
The Detroit automaker believes it can have another solid year despite industry sales slowing, a restructuring of its operations in China, and increased geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. as President Donald Trump begins his second term.
GM’s 2025 guidance includes net income attributable to stockholders of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion, or $11 to $12 in earnings per share; adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) of $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion, or $11 to $12 adjusted EPS; and adjusted automotive free cash flow between $11 billion and $13 billion.
“In our view, the guidance for 2025 leaves no room for errors, and also does not include impact from regulatory changes in the U.S., especially on tariffs and BEV support,” analysts at Bernstein said in a note.
GM’s 2025 financial guidance met or exceeded many forecasts from Wall Street analysts. Most notably, analysts were expecting adjusted earnings of around $14 billion.
That compares with the automaker’s 2024 results of adjusted EBIT of $14.9 billion, or $10.60 adjusted EPS, and net income attributable to stockholders of $6 billion, or $6.37 EPS. The adjusted figures and the $14 billion in adjusted auto free cash flow were records for the automaker, GM said.
GM CFO Paul Jacobson said the company’s 2025 guidance does not take into account any potential regulatory changes such as tariffs on vehicle imports or tax reform.
Here’s how the company performed in the fourth quarter, compared with average estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.92 adjusted vs. $1.89 estimated
- Revenue: $47.7 billion vs. $43.93 billion estimated
GM’s $47.7 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter was up 11% from the same period last year.
Jacobson said the company’s 2024 performance was “outstanding,” citing growth in its EV and traditional internal combustion engine businesses.
GM lost $2.96 billion, or $1.64 per share, in the fourth quarter, which ended Dec. 31, compared with earnings of $2.1 billion, or $1.59 per share, in the same period a year earlier.
GM’s quarterly results include $5 billion in special charges such as $4 billion in noncash restructuring charges related to its operations in China and $500 million in charges related to the decision to stop funding its Cruise robotaxi business. Excluding those charges and other items, GM earned $1.92 per share in the fourth quarter.
GM CEO Mary Barra said during the company’s investor call that it has a proposed restructuring plan to refocus its autonomous driving business on personal vehicles and expects annual run rate savings of about $1 billion from shutting down robotaxi development.
GM’s $6 billion in net income attributable to stockholders for the full year 2024 was down 40.7% from 2023.
GM last month said it expected a restructuring of its joint venture operations with SAIC Motor Corp. in China to cost more than $5 billion in noncash charges and write-downs, most of which occurred during the fourth quarter.
GM’s revenue last year increased to $187.44 billion, up 9.1% from 2023.
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Regions
GM’s North American operations continued their yearslong trend of carrying the automaker’s earnings. Its North American adjusted earnings increased 18.1% compared with 2023 to $14.53 billion, which equates to a 9.2% adjusted profit margin.
The Detroit automaker’s international operations — such as South Korea, Brazil and the Middle East — reported adjusted earnings of $303 million last year, down by 75% compared with 2023. Its equity income from China was a loss of $4.41 billion, largely due to the restructuring actions.
“In China, we reported positive equity income for the fourth quarter before restructuring costs, and we’re taking steps with our partner to improve from there,” GM CEO Mary Barra said in a letter to shareholders.
Jacobson reiterated that the company expects to restructure the operations without injecting more capital from the U.S. into China.
EVs
Aside from its financial results, GM said it expects to continue rolling out new products to assist its sales and earnings. That includes electric vehicles, which the company said reached a targeted profitability on a production basis during the fourth quarter.
GM expects a $2 billion to $4 billion improvement this year compared with 2024, based on wholesale volumes of about 300,000 EVs. That would be a roughly 59% increase from the 189,000 units in 2024 — slightly below a previously announced target of 200,000 EVs, as the automaker attempted to lower its days’ supply toward the end of the year.
“We do think that we can grow our EV demand,” Jacobson said. “We’re going to continue to see how EV adoption progresses in 2025, but the 300,000 is the assumption that we base on being at the low end of the $2 billion to $4 billion of profit improvement.”
GM said it’s expecting improvements on scale, fixed cost absorption, and a continued focus on cell and vehicle cost reductions to drive improved earnings for EVs next year.
Additionally in 2025, Jacobson said GM will continue to look for opportunities to return value to shareholders as well as pay down the company’s automotive debt, including $1.75 billion that matures this year. He said the company early retired $750 million in debt in December in addition to completing stock repurchases to lower its outstanding share count to below 1 billion to end the year.
For the entire U.S. industry, Jacobson said GM expects new vehicle sales to be relatively level this year compared with last at more than 16 million vehicles. The Detroit automaker expects vehicle pricing, which has come down from record highs of recent years, to decline between 1% and 1.5%.
Regulatory uncertainty
Barra, in her shareholder letter, noted the current “uncertainty over trade, tax, and environmental regulations” could impact the automaker’s business.
She said the company has been “proactive with Congress and the administration” about the importance of U.S. manufacturing and “American leadership in advanced technologies.”
“It’s clear that we share a lot of common ground, and we appreciate the dialogue,” said Barra, who spoke with Trump before his inauguration. “Whatever happens on these fronts, we have a broad and deep portfolio of [internal combustion engine] vehicles and EVs that are both growing market share, and we’ll be agile and execute as efficiently as possible.”
GM previously told CNBC that Barra’s conversation with Trump was “friendly and productive.”
Trump has discussed implementing a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, which could affect vehicles that are imported to the U.S.
Most major automakers have factories in the U.S. However, they still heavily rely on imports from other countries, including Mexico, to meet American consumer demand.
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